Monday, May 12, 2008
Former Georgia GOP Congressman Bob Barr has launched his bid for the White House on the Libertarian Party ticket. The Party will choose its nominee for President later this month. Barr says several Republicans have asked him not to run for fear of cutting into McCain's vote. But methinks that folks who will actually go to the trouble of voting for Barr aren't likely to have voted for McCain anyway. His exploratory committee said Barr could win 7% of likely voters. I find this highly unlikely. Michael Badnarik got 0.34% of the vote in 2004 and the late Harry Browne won 0.5% and 0.4% of the vote in the 1996 and 2000 Presidential elections, respectively. Ron Paul won 0.5% of the vote when he was the Libertarian standard bearer in 1988. I don't see Barr winning more than 1% of the popular vote and even that is a stretch because that showing would effectively have doubled their support. If he does achieve that it would be on the strength of a protest vote. McCain has more to worry about from Ron Paul and his supporters making nuisances of themselves at the Republican National Convention at the end of August than he does from Barr in November.
Posted by Aaron Goldstein at Monday, May 12, 2008