On Saturday, I wrote that Russia stood to gain from the Polish air tragedy which claimed the life of Polish President Lech Kaczysnki and 96 other passengers mostly from Poland's civil, military and religious establishment:
Yes, I am aware that Putin is personally heading up the investigation into the crash. Yet I can't see Putin concluding anything other than pilot error. I think he wants to give the appearance of being a friend to Poland while working behind the scenes to ensure to increase Russian influence there.
Now I'm sure many in Poland will not welcome Putin's involvement in the investigation and there will be strong anti-Russian sentiment expressed during the elections which could manifest into outbreaks of violence against Russians living in Poland as was the case when the teenaged children of Russian diplomats were attacked in July 2005.
Well, it would appear that I'm half-right. Putin is giving the appearance of being a friend towards Poland but instead of an outbreak of anti-Russian sentiment the Polish populace appears to be embracing the Russian Prime Minister as as a result of his embrace of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. So does this mean Poland will elect a government that is more pro-Moscow?
On the other hand, maybe it's the BBC that is pro-Moscow. Here is another BBC news item suggesting the pilot and crew were under pressure to land from the passengers on board and that Kaczynski himself ordered the pilot to land. If the Russians try to blame the crash on Kaczynski then Putin can kill Polish goodwill goodbye.
Monday, April 12, 2010
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