The Honduran Congress has voted against allowing Manuel Zelaya from returning to office.
Zelaya was ousted from office in June after he declared his intention to remain in office beyond his single term.
This past Sunday, Hondurans elected Profirio Lobo as their new President. He is due to take office near the end of January.
Although Zelaya has said he wouldn't have accepted the post even if the vote had gone his way, it will be interesting to see if Zelaya's supporters instigate violence in protest of the outcome. Or will they bide their time and concentrate their efforts on preventing Lobo from taking office? Should either of these scenarios come to pass, will they get help from Hugo Chavez and spark a regional war?
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
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I had a feeling Congress was not going to let Zelaya back in power because then it would have forced them to decide whether or not to execute him, which would have caused them more issues. He definitely would have stirred the pot again, guaranteed. Honduras has handled themselves as well as any country could considering the lack of solidarity they were given when they deposed a dictator wannabe without a military takeover.
Since I have friends who LIVE in Honduras, I know that the country has been very tentative and security very tight, so it's not as if things are exactly peachy. But, considering how crazy the liberals have been acting up regarding Zelaya, it's very likely in the country's best security interest to do so.
A war would be high risk, low reward for Chavez, so I cannot see him gaining any more popularity from a war, but he would stand to lose much of it, especially were he to lose. And with Colombia ready, that is a real possibility. The advantage Chavez has, though, is the United States, since I have absolutely the utmost confidence that Obama will not interfere. I could see Iran meddling in South American affairs if things are not going well for Hugo, and that would force Obama to make a decision: honor the Monroe Doctrine, or do nothing. Here, I believe he will do something, but probably too little, too late, and nothing of consequence for him, at least in international terms. In Latin America, he will be seen as weak. That is the only thing Chavez will have to gain, but to be frank, I think most already believe that.
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